What Will Happen If the Syrian Government Collapses?

 

What Will Happen If the Syrian Government Collapses? What Is the Current Situation in Syria? Who Are the Supporters of Syria? Who Will Benefit If Syria Falls?

If the Syrian government collapses, the consequences will be long-term and complex, potentially leading to a prolonged crisis:

Humanitarian Crisis: There is a high likelihood of a humanitarian crisis. As livelihoods decline, displacement and various hardships could significantly increase. The UN has already warned that up to 1.5 million people could be displaced if the government falls.

Regional Instability: The power vacuum in Syria could increase regional instability, with various political and armed factions competing for control. This could draw neighboring countries into the conflict.

International Involvement: Countries with vested interests, such as the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and several European nations, may increase their involvement to protect their interests or influence the new government that emerges in Syria.

Rise in Terrorism: The chaos following Bashar al-Assad's fall could provide fertile ground for terrorist groups, posing further threats to regional and global security.

Economic Impact: Syria's economy, already devastated by years of conflict, could face further decline, leading to increased poverty and hardship for the population.

Other Potential Issues: The situation could vary based on the actions of countries seeking to dominate Syria.

Rebel Advances: Syrian rebel forces, led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have recently captured Aleppo and Hama. They are now advancing towards Homs, Syria's third-largest city.

As political stability in Syria rapidly changes, various countries and organizations are responding to the crisis. India has issued an advisory for its citizens to leave Syria, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for de-escalation.

Government Response: The Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, continues to resist the rebel advances. Syrian Foreign Minister Hassam al-Sabbagh has condemned the rebel actions as attempts to redraw the political map of the region. You might recall how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once boasted about reshaping the Middle East map.

As of today, the Syrian government led by President Bashar al-Assad has not collapsed but is facing significant challenges. Reports indicate that opposition forces, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have made substantial gains, capturing key cities like Aleppo and Hama. The Syrian army has withdrawn from Hama, and the government forces are under pressure as the opposition advances.

The situation in Syria remains highly unstable and dangerous, with potential for further division and destruction, but the government still controls a significant portion of the country. Clashes continue, with both sides escalating attacks.

Who Supports Syria?

Several countries continue to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad:

Iran: Iran has been a staunch ally of Assad, providing military and financial support. Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias have also supported the Syrian government.

Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani has reaffirmed Iraq's commitment to supporting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

United Arab Emirates (UAE): UAE's Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has shown solidarity with Syria, affirming his country's support for Syria's fight against terrorism and efforts to maintain stability.

These countries, along with Russia, continue to back Assad amidst the ongoing conflict.

Potential Scenarios If the Syrian Government Collapses:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): This militant group, which has been leading recent advances, could attempt to establish control, especially if they capture key cities like Homs.

Turkey: Turkey has been directly and indirectly involved in the conflict and might seek to influence the formation of a new government, potentially supporting Sunni Arab majority rule. It is notable that Bashar al-Assad, being an Alawite, belongs to a Shia sect. Therefore, Sunni Arab Muslim countries may look to establish a Sunni-dominated government.

Kurdish Forces: The Kurdish regions in northeastern Syria might attempt to establish their own autonomous administration, as they have done in the past. Kurdish forces have long fought to carve out a Kurdish state from parts of Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Given American support for the Kurds, this could be a significant threat to Turkey.

Fragmentation: Syria could become fragmented, with different regions controlled by various factions, leading to prolonged instability and conflict.

The situation is highly uncertain, and the outcome would depend on the actions of various internal and external actors.

Potential Benefits to Israel:

Israel could gain some strategic advantages if the Syrian government collapses. Key points include:

Weakening of Iran and Hezbollah: The collapse of the Assad regime could weaken Iran's influence in Syria and disrupt supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a significant strategic gain for Israel.

Buffer Zone: Israel might establish a buffer zone in southern Syria to prevent hostile forces from approaching its borders, enhancing its security along the Golan Heights.

Regional Influence: The power vacuum created by the collapse could allow Israel to increase its influence in the region, potentially aligning with other regional powers to shape Syria's future.

However, the collapse could also lead to heightened instability and chaos, potentially posing new security challenges for Israel. A new Syrian government could be more active against Israel, leading to unpredictable outcomes.

Let's stay tuned for further developments. Subscribe and hit the bell icon for more updates. Thank you.